Victories in the midterm elections [WR-03-26] do not seem to have done the opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) much good. Voting preferences are still being attracted mainly by the mayor of Mexico city, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) — and in second place go, not to the PRI, but to the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN).
An opinion survey conducted by the polling firm Bimsa shows López Obrador, who recently said he did not intend to run for the presidency in 2006, with 37% of preferences. At a distance, with 24%, follows Marta Sahagún, wife of President Vicente Fox, who has been blowing hot and cold over her own intentions. The PRI's Roberto Madrazo trails behind her with 20% (and 19% of respondents either won't answer or are undecided).
Compared with their standing in a poll conducted by the same firm on the day of the midterm elections, 6 July, López Obrador has gained 8 points and Madrazo has lost 6.
The pollsters also posed another scenario, in which the PAN's candidate was interior minister Santiago Creel instead of Sahagún. This did not affect López Obrador's rating, but lowered that of the PAN candidate by two points while raising Madrazo's by one — leaving the second and third only one point apart.
According to the pollsters, López Obrador attracts the nearly unanimous support of the PRD sympathisers, plus most of the independents and followers of smaller parties — and, interestingly enough, of 21% of the respondents who identified themselves as PRI sympathisers. One out of every three persons who voted for Fox in 2000 would now cast their ballot in favour of López Obrador.
Adopting `pragmatic' style
The PRD seems to be seeking to capitalise on López Obrador's lead by adopting his style of `pragmatic' politics instead of holding on to its older positions, in the current debate over energy reform. Party president Leonel Godoy says the party favours granting autonomy to the state oil company, Pemex, and the state power utilities, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) and Compañía de Luz y Fuerza, ending the state's centralised control over the three.
To this, though, Godoy attached a warning: if new régimes were to be adopted for energy, taxation or labour that did not reflect a truly broad consensus, Mexico could find itself in a situation akin to Bolivia's, with `focuses of social resistance' that would threaten institutional stability.
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